Sondaggio Predict09.eu: PDL 32% PD 30%
Sondaggio Predict09.eu: PDL 32% PD 30%
La rilevazione proposta da Predict09.eu e curata da politologi inglesi si basa su una metodologia complessa: intenzioni di voto, statistiche sulla fiducia e tendenze passate.
Il centrosinistra sarebbe oltre il 45%, con la maggioranza ferma al 39. Dati che ci paiono inverosimili proprio considerando non solo i sondaggi, ma anche le tendenze di voto e il clima politico in atto dal 2007. (via Andrea Mollica). TUTTI I DATI
Questa la presentazione, dal sito del progetto Predict09.
[ad]Predict09.eu is a prediction of the outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections and the resulting make-up of the next European Parliament. The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by three leading political scientists: Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics).
These updated predictions (after the launch on 7 April 2009) use new polling data and up-to-date information about which parties and coalitions will be standing in the elections. A new section has also been added to the website, on the overall analysis page, on the possible effect of low voter turnout on the predictions. The predictions will be updated every two weeks until the elections on 4-7 June.
E questa la tabella con i dati, tanto clamorosi quanto inverosimili.
PDL 32.0%
PD 30.0%
LEGA 6.9%
IDV 6.7%
UDC 5.4%
RC-CI 5.3%
AUT 3.7%
SEL 3.3%
Qui la metodologia usata.
